Working Papers

Employed in Conflict: Explaining Social Policy Preferences of a Tripartite Labour Market


Recent studies have advanced understanding of the sources and political consequences of labour market risk. Yet, little is known about recent sources of risk or their implications for voter preferences. I propose a novel framework to assess labour market vulnerability that addresses important contradictions overlooked in the existing literature and that speci es additional sources of risk, such as those experienced by gig workers. The key observation is that there is a risk-precarity overlap, only identi able at the individual level, and that, consequently, risk is not homogeneous within an occupation. The framework presents a conceptual re-organization of labour market vulnerability based on individuals’ jobs rather than their occupation, in which three risk groups compete in setting their optimal level of taxation. Evidence from a long-run Swiss panel data corroborates the argument’s predictions. The implications for coalition formation in support of the welfare state and the role of occupations are discussed.

Work In Progress

An Endogenous Human Capital Theory of a Conservative Vote

Winning Tactics: Cues of Intra-Party Competition and Vote Choice  (with Stavros Poupakis)

Insuring Lost Calories: Long-Term Political Consequences of Exposure to the Dutch Famine (with Gerda Hooijer)

The Democrat Disaster: Natural Hazard Exposure, Risk Aversion and Insurance Demand